Watching the Super Bowl? Bettor beware.
As I report in The Wall Street Journal, it's easier than ever to bet on sports, and harder than ever to win long term, thanks to some exceptionally manipulative industry trends.
IF YOU CAN LOOK PAST the bleary faces of despair, the cigarette smoke, and the conspicuous lack of sunlight, casinos are fascinating psychology laboratories. Each of the games exploits a predictable mental vulnerability, baiting customers into bleeding cash. The more I cover the rise of sports gambling in the U.S., the more I’m amazed at the industry’s ability to devise sports betting opportunities that replicate the seduction—and profit margins—of classic casino games.
Betting on sports should be like playing blackjack. Some reckless players will hit on 18 and see their stack of chips vanish in minutes, just as some sports bettors can’t resist betting on their favorite team, no matter how terrible they might be. But a disciplined and strategic gambler should be able to play blackjack or bet on sports and only gradually lose everything. (And, of course, a tiny percentage of card counters and sharp bettors can come out ahead.)
Four and a half years since states outside Nevada began legalizing sports betting, sportsbook operators are under enormous pressure to start turning a profit. As a result, they’re growing impatient with the business’s traditionally narrow margins. Thanks to aggressive advertising, the two trendiest ways to wager on sports replicate not the slow burn of blackjack, but instead the repetitive rush of slot machines and the big-payout excitement of craps. As you might have guessed, these increasingly popular sports bets—live wagering during games, and combination “parlay” bets—are causing sportsbook revenues to soar.
Cocky sports fans are prone to think they can outsmart sportsbooks, even when the odds are overwhelmingly stacked against them. As one experienced gambler told me recently, “At least in the lottery, no one expects to win.”
I WAS GRATEFUL to get to cover these themes for my first piece in The Wall Street Journal, published today in the Weekend Review:
Earlier this week, I was invited to discuss the controversial business of sports betting on NPR’s “Marketplace.” Here’s that interview if you’re interested:
The Journal piece is an especially happy breakthrough, since my Dad is a regular contributor to the newspaper’s opinion section, and wrote recently for Weekend Review. Thanks for all your help, Dad!
A lot of my reporting on this subject covers business tactics that some people say are predatory. On that subject, there were several big developments over the past week:
Sportsbook operators profile every customer’s betting habits. The New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement said it will use that data to identify and offer help to bettors who show signs of addiction or other worrisome tendencies.
I’ve written before about how “risk-free” betting promotions entice customers to make bets that can still be quite risky. The NBA said it will no longer accept ads that use that misleading language.
Rep. Paul Tonko (D-NY) introduced a bill that would ban sports betting advertisements on communication channels that are regulated by the FCC (TV, radio, etc.), just as Congress has done for tobacco products.
In the meantime, Americans are expected to place more than $1 billion in legal bets on Sunday’s big game.
If you’re thinking of betting on the Super Bowl, I like the “over” on Chris Stapleton’s national anthem taking more than 121 seconds. Otherwise, you’re on your own.
If you know of something that might merit coverage—related to anything newsworthy, not just the betting business—please write me at dannyfunt1 [at] gmail.com.
Thanks for reading! Wynnie wishes you all a happy Valentine’s Day.